The Indian civil aviation sector is showing an extraordinary growth rate in the last few years. In 2005-06, the passenger traffic rose by 25-30% and is expected to grow by 25% year-on-year over the next five years. Such a pace of growth in air traffic has however resulted in a strain on the aviation infrastructure, which is already stretched- resulting in traffic congestions and delays at majority of the airports.
Passenger Traffic
During the last 10 years from 1996 to 2005, the details of domestic & international passengers traveled are as below:
| Year | Domestic | Domestic | International | International |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passengers Carried(Lakhs) |
Growth (%) | Passengers Carried (Lakhs) | Growth (%) | |
| 1996 | 119.07 | 99.60 | ||
| 1997 | 116.43 | -2.22 | 106.04 | 6.47 |
| 1998 | 118.60 | 1.86 | 108.39 | 2.22 |
| 1999 | 122.30 | 3.12 | 113.60 | 4.81 |
| 2000 | 133.21 | 8.92 | 119.99 | 5.63 |
| 2001 | 128.10 | -3.84 | 120.20 | 0.18 |
| 2003 | 145.42 | 9.20 | 140.37 | 9.93 |
| 2004 | 181.73 | 24.97 | 166.72 | 18.77 |
| 2005 | 223.07 | 22.75 | 189.63 | 13.74 |
Source: DGCA
The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for the last 10 years is 7.2%. However, if the last five years data is taken into consideration, the CAGR is 15%. The traffic forecast on the domestic sector up to 2015 is based on the last 10 years' data.
Taking into account the high growth rate being experienced in India, the strong economic growth and the future trend of aircraft procurement by the Indian operators, the domestic as well as international passengers carried till the year 2015 are projected as follows:
| Year | Domestic Passengers carried |
International Passengers carried | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| in Lakhs | Annual Growth (%) | in Lakhs | Annual Growth (%) | |
| 2006 | 267.7 | -- | 207.94 | -- |
| 2007 | 321.2 | 19.99 | 232.07 | 11.60 |
| 2008 | 369.4 | 15.01 | 258.99 | 11.60 |
| 2009 | 424.8 | 15.00 | 277.63 | 7.20 |
| 2010 | 488.6 | 15.02 | 297.62 | 7.20 |
| 2011 | 523.7 | 7.18 | 319.05 | 7.20 |
| 2012 | 561.5 | 7.22 | 342.02 | 7.20 |
| 2012 | 601.9 | 7.20 | 366.65 | 7.20 |
| 2013 | 393.0 | 57.19 | 393.05 | 7.20 |
| 2014 | 691.7 | 7.21 | 421.35 | 7.20 |
Source: DGCA
Cargo Traffic
During the last five years from 2001 to 2005, the domestic cargo has increased with a CAGR of 16.3%, while international cargo has registered CAGR of 12.2%.
| Year | Domestic Cargo | International Cargo | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT | Annual Growth % | MT | Annual Growth (%) | ||
| 2001-02 | 185338 | -- | 497764 | -- | |
| 2001-03 | 234189 | 26.4 | 555006 | 11.5 | |
| 2001-04 | 255520 | 9.1 | 616746 | 11.1 | |
| 2001-05 | 325456 | 27.4 | 739451 | 19.9 | |
| 200-06(P) | 338929 | 4.1 | 787593 | 6.5 | |
| CAGR over last 5 years | 523.7 | 16.3% | 12.2% | ||
Source: DGCA
Using the above CAGR of 16.3% (domestic) and 12.2% (international) registered over the last five years, the following would be projections for Domestic and International cargo.
| Year | Domestic Cargo (MT) | International Cargo (MT) |
|---|---|---|
| 2006-07 | 394134.8 | 883326.9 |
| 2007-08 | 458332.7 | 990697.4 |
| 2006-09 | 532987.4 | 1111119 |
| 2007-10 | 619802 | 1246178 |
| 2006-11 | 720757.3 | 1397654 |
| 2007-12 | 838156.5 | 1567543 |