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The Indian civil aviation sector is showing an extraordinary growth rate in the last few years. In 2005-06, the passenger traffic rose by 25-30% and is expected to grow by 25% year-on-year over the next five years. Such a pace of growth in air traffic has however resulted in a strain on the aviation infrastructure, which is already stretched- resulting in traffic congestions and delays at majority of the airports.

Passenger Traffic



During the last 10 years from 1996 to 2005, the details of domestic & international passengers traveled are as below:

Year Domestic Domestic International International
  Passengers
Carried(Lakhs)
Growth (%) Passengers Carried (Lakhs) Growth (%)
1996 119.07   99.60  
1997 116.43 -2.22 106.04 6.47
1998 118.60 1.86 108.39 2.22
1999 122.30 3.12 113.60 4.81
2000 133.21 8.92 119.99 5.63
2001 128.10 -3.84 120.20 0.18
2003 145.42 9.20 140.37 9.93
2004 181.73 24.97 166.72 18.77
2005 223.07 22.75 189.63 13.74

Source: DGCA

The compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for the last 10 years is 7.2%. However, if the last five years data is taken into consideration, the CAGR is 15%. The traffic forecast on the domestic sector up to 2015 is based on the last 10 years' data.

Taking into account the high growth rate being experienced in India, the strong economic growth and the future trend of aircraft procurement by the Indian operators, the domestic as well as international passengers carried till the year 2015 are projected as follows:

Year Domestic
Passengers carried
International Passengers carried
in Lakhs Annual Growth (%) in Lakhs Annual Growth (%)
2006 267.7 -- 207.94 --
2007 321.2 19.99 232.07 11.60
2008 369.4 15.01 258.99 11.60
2009 424.8 15.00 277.63 7.20
2010 488.6 15.02 297.62 7.20
2011 523.7 7.18 319.05 7.20
2012 561.5 7.22 342.02 7.20
2012 601.9 7.20 366.65 7.20
2013 393.0 57.19 393.05 7.20
2014 691.7 7.21 421.35 7.20

Source: DGCA

Cargo Traffic



During the last five years from 2001 to 2005, the domestic cargo has increased with a CAGR of 16.3%, while international cargo has registered CAGR of 12.2%.

Year Domestic Cargo International Cargo
MT Annual Growth % MT Annual Growth (%)
2001-02 185338 -- 497764 --
2001-03 234189 26.4 555006 11.5
2001-04 255520 9.1 616746 11.1
2001-05 325456 27.4 739451 19.9
200-06(P) 338929 4.1 787593 6.5
CAGR over last 5 years 523.7 16.3% 12.2%

Source: DGCA

Using the above CAGR of 16.3% (domestic) and 12.2% (international) registered over the last five years, the following would be projections for Domestic and International cargo.

Year Domestic Cargo (MT) International Cargo (MT)
2006-07 394134.8 883326.9
2007-08 458332.7 990697.4
2006-09 532987.4 1111119
2007-10 619802 1246178
2006-11 720757.3 1397654
2007-12 838156.5 1567543


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